Predictions, key stats and nuggets for every NFL Week 9 matchup, from Bills-Jets to Ravens-Saints

by Ricardo Gutierrez - What to watch for in every game. Bold predictions. Fantasy advice. Key stats to know. And, of course, final score picks. It's all here for Week 9.

6:55 AM ET ESPN staff The Week 9 NFL schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup. Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information research provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football . Let's get into the full Week 9 slate, including an NFC West matchup between Seattle and Arizona, Tom Brady vs. Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen taking on the Jets. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Ravens and the Saints on ESPN . (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.) Jump to a matchup: BUF-NYJ | GB-DET | IND-NE MIA-CHI | MIN-WSH | CAR-CIN LAC-ATL | LV-JAX | SEA-ARI LAR-TB | TEN-KC | BAL-NO Thursday: PHI 29, HOU 17 Bye: CLE , DAL , DEN , NYG , PIT , SF Bills (6-1) at Jets (5-3) 1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread : BUF -13 (46.5) What to watch for: Jets QB Zach Wilson will attempt to rebound from a three-interception nightmare. It won't be easy. It never is against the Bills, who have held the Jets to 17 or fewer points in six straight meetings. The Bills, seeking their first 7-1 start since 1993, are tied for fourth in takeaways (14) -- a problematic matchup for Wilson & Co. -- Rich Cimini Bold prediction: Josh Allen will throw at least three touchdowns with over 325 passing yards. Allen was frustrated after throwing two second half interceptions in the team's 27-17 win over the Green Bay Packers , and while the Jets defense has nine interceptions on the year and hasn't allowed over 300 passing yards in a game this year, Allen will use those bad decisions to bounce back. Much of the Jets defensive success has come in zone coverage (lowest QBR allowed), but Allen leads the league in QBR (81) and passing touchdowns (six) against zone coverage. -- Alaina Getzenberg Stat to know: Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner hasn't allowed more than three receptions or 20 receiving yards as a nearest defender in five straight games, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And he has allowed the lowest completion percentage (32.1%) as a nearest defender in the last five weeks. Injuries: Bills | Jets What to know for fantasy: The upside of Bills WR Gabe Davis is no secret, but last week was the third time in five games in which he did not produce top-50 numbers at the position. See Week 9 rankings . Betting nugget: New York is the largest home underdog by any team with a winning record since 2007. Buffalo is the second team in the last 40 seasons to be at least a 12-point road favorite over a team with a winning record, joining 2007 New England -- which did it twice. Read more . Moody's pick: Bills 30, Jets 16 Walder's pick: Bills 31, Jets 13 FPI prediction: BUF, 80.5% (by an average of 10.2 points) Packers (3-5) at Lions (1-6) 1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread : GB -3.5 (49.5) What to watch for: After a rough start, Detroit made some major changes this week -- firing DBs coach Aubrey Pleasant and trading tight end T.J. Hockenson . The Lions are on a six-game losing streak, and the Packers have lost four straight. In their last meeting, the Lions enjoyed a rare victory over Green Bay in Week 17 of the 2021 season -- though Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers sat out the second half with the conference title already clinched. That won't be the case this time around as both teams are in desperate need of a win. -- Eric Woodyard Bold prediction: Rodgers and the Packers' offense will finally bust out with 300-plus passing yards. Rodgers has a streak of 12 straight games with less than 300 yards passing (the longest streak of his career), but the Lions' defense has been a broken dam. Detroit is allowing 32.1 points per game, and their 225 points allowed is the second-most by any Lions team in their first seven games of a season. -- Rob Demovsky Stat to know: The Packers have lost five of their first eight games for the first time since 2006. Rodgers has a 18-6 career record against the Lions -- his second most wins vs. a single opponent in his career (Bears, 23). Editor's Picks Week 9 buzz, upset picks: Trade deadline winners and losers, Raiders' struggles, Jalen Hurts' contract 2d Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano 2 Related Injuries: Packers | Lions What to know for fantasy: Rodgers is still seeking his first weekly finish better than QB12 this season. See Week 9 rankings . Betting nugget: Green Bay is 0-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last four games as a favorite with three straight outright losses. Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as well. Read more . Moody's pick: Packers 24, Lions 23 Walder's pick: Packers 24, Lions 14 FPI prediction: GB, 74.3% (by an average of 7.7 points) Colts (3-4-1) at Patriots (4-4) 1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread : NE -5.5 (40) What to watch for: The Patriots and Colts are tied for the NFL lead with 16 turnovers apiece, but the difference is that the Patriots have an even turnover differential because they've created 16 (tied for most in NFL). The Colts have a minus-8 turnover differential, which ranks them 31st out of 32 teams in the NFL and makes them vulnerable to New England. As Patriots safety Devin McCourty said, "We're doing a better job of getting [turnovers] when we need them. I think that's the key to a good defense -- consistently getting them and when our offense might need a spark, somebody forcing a turnover." -- Mike Reiss Bold prediction: Last Sunday against the Commanders, the Colts had their best rushing performance since Week 1 and matched a season high in rushing yards per attempt (4.7). Look for them to continue their progression with a 150-yard rushing effort against a Patriots defense that's been spotty against the run. They will further lean into the run-pass option menu afforded to them by playing mobile quarterback Sam Ehlinger . Jonathan Taylor is struggling with an ankle injury, but the Colts have shown in previous years that they can scheme up runs for almost any back. -- Stephen Holder Stat to know: Mac Jones is 206 yards shy of 5,000 career passing yards entering his 23rd career game. If done this Sunday against the Colts, he will be the second-fastest to 5,000 passing yards in Patriots history -- Drew Bledsoe did it in 22 games. Injuries: Colts | Patriots What to know for fantasy: Only five receivers have scored more fantasy points over the past four weeks than... Jakobi Meyers . See Week 9 rankings . Betting nugget: Indianapolis games are 7-1 to the under this season, tied with Denver for the highest under percentage in the NFL. New England is 4-1 ATS in its last five games. Read more . Moody's pick: Patriots 24, Colts 14 Walder's pick: Patriots 20, Colts 17 FPI prediction: NE, 78.5% (by an average of 9.2 points) Dolphins (5-3) at Bears (3-5) 1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread : MIA -5 (45.5) What to watch for: It was a busy trade deadline for both of these teams. Chicago traded linebacker Roquan Smith and defensive end Robert Quinn and acquired WR Chase Claypool . QB Justin Fields and the offense put up 33 and 29 points in back-to-back road games before this addition, so that will be something to watch. Meanwhile, Miami's defense also got a major boost at the deadline with the addition of edge rusher Bradley Chubb . The Pro Bowler has recorded 5.5 sacks this season and ranks third in the NFL with a 25.8% pass rush win rate. Chubb's new teammate, Jaelan Phillips , ranks fourth -- Courtney Cronin Bold prediction: Miami newcomers Chubb and Jeff Wilson Jr . will make an impact -- Chubb will have at least one sack and Wilson will catch a touchdown pass. Coach Mike McDaniel said both will play, but isn't sure how many snaps. Even in a limited capacity these players have a good chance to contribute. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques Stat to know: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill has four games this season with 150 receiving yards and 10 catches, which is tied for the most such games in a season in NFL history with Jerry Rice (1995), Tim Brown (1997), Calvin Johnson (2012) and Antonio Brown (2017). Injuries: Dolphins | Bears What to know for fantasy: Darnell Mooney has seen more than six targets in a game just once this season, and while Fields' growth is encouraging, the acquisition of Claypool could lower his target expectation even further. See Week 9 rankings . Betting nugget: Fields is 1-5 ATS as a home underdog and 5-11 ATS as an underdog in his career. Miami is 4-1 ATS when Tagovailoa starts and finishes the game, compared to 0-3 ATS when he does not. Read more . Moody's pick: Bears 27, Dolphins 24 Walder's pick: Dolphins 35, Bears 14 FPI prediction: MIA, 68.5% (by an average of 5.6 points) play 1:10 Schefter expects Chase Claypool to have a big role in Bears' offense Adam Schefter examines the Bears' big plans for WR Chase Claypool. Vikings (6-1) at Commanders (4-4) 1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread : MIN -3.5 (43.5) What to watch for: Washington can climb above .500 for the first time in Ron Rivera's two-plus seasons if it wins Sunday. Sunday will be more about that than beating its former starting quarterback Kirk Cousins . Only three players on Washington's 53-man roster were Cousins' teammates. Rather, it'll be about how the Commanders handle the red zone. Minnesota's offense ranks fifth in red zone success while Washington's defense ranks eighth in this area. And during the Commanders' three-game win streak they rank second in the red zone, helped by forcing two turnovers. -- John Keim Bold prediction: This game will be decided by one score, something both of these teams have done many times this season. The Vikings are 5-0 in such games, and the Commanders are 4-1. In the end, look for Cousins -- who spent the first six seasons of his career in Washington -- to lead a fourth-quarter drive that will lift the Vikings to victory and set up a showdown in Week 10 with the Bills. -- Kevin Seifert Stat to know: Za'Darius Smith has 8.5 sacks this season, which is tied for most in the NFL. It is tied for the fourth-most sacks by a Vikings' player through the first seven games since sacks became official in 1982. Injuries: Vikings | Commanders What to know for fantasy: Vikings WR Adam Thielen has been a top-30 receiver in four of his past five games. That's not too impressive, but the fact that he's done it with only two touchdowns on his ledger is noteworthy. See Week 9 rankings . Betting nugget: Washington is 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records. Read more . Moody's pick: Vikings 27, Commanders 20 Walder's pick: Vikings 27, Commanders 16 FPI prediction: MIN, 54.9% (by an average of 1.6 points) Panthers (2-6) at Bengals (4-4) 1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread : CIN -7.5 (42.5) What to watch for: The Bengals are looking to avoid dipping below the .500 mark before their Week 10 bye. Losing WR Ja'Marr Chase to injury was a hurdle they couldn't overcome last week vs. the Browns. Carolina, though, appears rejuvenated in the three games under interim coach Steve Wilks. During that span, the Panthers' defense is eighth in the NFL in points allowed per drive. -- Ben Baby Bold prediction: Bengals QB Joe Burrow will pass for 350 yards and four touchdowns against a Carolina defense giving up 230 passing yards a game. While the Bengals have allowed Burrow to be sacked 29 times, the Panthers have only sacked a QB 12 times this season -- ranking 29th in the league. So Burrow will have time to make plays against a Carolina secondary that could be without cornerback Donte Jackson (ankle). -- David Newton Stat to know: Panthers RB D'Onta Foreman has 236 rushing yards since the start of Week 7. The only players in the NFL with more over that span are Derrick Henry (347) and Travis Etienne Jr . (270). Injuries: Panthers | Bengals What to know for fantasy: After not posting a single top-25 performance in the first six weeks of the season, DJ Moore has given fantasy managers top-10 numbers in consecutive weeks. See Week 9 rankings . Betting nugget: Carolina has covered back-to-back games after going 3-17 ATS in its previous 20 games. Read more . Moody's pick: Bengals 31, Panthers 17 Walder's pick: Bengals 19, Panthers 10 FPI prediction: CIN, 80.4% (by an average of 10.0 points) Chargers (4-3) at Falcons (4-4) 1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread : LAC -3 (49.5) What to watch for: The Falcons have won three straight games at home for the first time in a single season since 2015. They might have the edge this week as they have won eight of the 11 meetings between the two teams. And even though Chargers RB Austin Ekeler has eight touchdowns in the last four games, the home team has the rushing advantage, averaging 158.1 rush yards per game -- fifth-best in the NFL. -- Michael Rothstein Bold prediction: The Falcons have allowed 306.9 passing yards per game, but could catch a break Sunday. The Chargers will be without wide receiver Mike Williams , who has been ruled out because of a right high ankle sprain, and uncertainty remains regarding the status of Keenan Allen , who is dealing with a nagging hamstring injury, and Joshua Palmer , who recently cleared concussion protocol. Watch the Falcons hold the Chargers to a season-low in passing yards (under 224), thanks in large part to the number of injuries the Bolts are dealing with. -- Lindsey Thiry Stat to know: The Chargers rank last in yards per rush (5.70) and 27th in opponent's rushing yards per game (137.6) this season. Follow the NFL all season long Everything you need this week: • Full schedule » | Standings » • Depth charts for every team » • Transactions » | Injuries » • Football Power Index rankings » More NFL coverage » Injuries: Chargers | Falcons What to know for fantasy: A Chargers' receiver has seen at least nine targets in six of seven games this season, and with Mike Williams sidelined, Keenan Allen could rediscover his pre-hamstring injury volume (and if not him, Palmer deserves to be rostered as the next best option when healthy). See Week 9 rankings . Betting nugget: Los Angeles is 3-0 ATS on the road this season. Atlanta is 3-0 ATS as a home underdog and 6-1 ATS overall as an underdog this season. Read more . Moody's pick: Falcons 33, Chargers 28 Walder's pick: Chargers 24, Falcons 16 FPI prediction: ATL, 54.4% (by an average of 1.3 points) Matchup must-reads: Allen frustrated by hamstring setback ... Falcons trade suspended WR Ridley to Jaguars Raiders (2-5) at Jaguars (2-6) 1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread : LV -1.5 (48) What to watch for: One thing these two teams do pretty well is run the ball. Las Vegas' Josh Jacobs is fourth in the NFL in rushing (676 yards) and Jacksonville's Travis Etienne Jr . is sixth (571). Jacobs averages 5.6 yards per carry and Etienne averages 6.2, which is third in the NFL and second among running backs. They could end up canceling each other out, leaving the outcome to ride on whichever QB makes the last mistake. -- Mike DiRocco Bold prediction: Jaguars WR Zay Jones and DE Arden Key will show out against their former team -- the Raiders. Jones will tie his career high with two TD catches against Las Vegas' No. 25-ranked pass defense and Key will register at least one sack. -- Paul Gutierrez Stat to know: Trevor Lawrence 's QBR is 8.0 in the red zone, which is the second-worst in the NFL. He is leading the NFL with three interceptions in the red zone and ranks 29th of 35 passers with a 43.9% completion percentage. Injuries: Raiders | Jaguars What to know for fantasy: Etienne's arrow is pointing straight up, and it's tough to project his growth to slow. His positional finish over the past five weeks are as follows: 58-22-18-8-7. See Week 9 rankings . Betting nugget: Derek Carr is 4-12-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 0-7 ATS in his last seven instances. Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its last five games. Read more . Moody's pick: Jaguars 23, Raiders 20 Walder's pick: Raiders 30, Jaguars 27 FPI prediction: LV, 50.1% (by an average of 0.2 points) Seahawks (5-3) at Cardinals (3-5) 4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread : ARI -2 (49.5) What to watch for: The Cardinals are about to start a three-game stretch -- all against NFC West teams -- that could decide their season. This, to a large degree, may be the biggest game of Kliff Kingsbury's tenure in Arizona just because of that. The Cardinals have averaged 34.0 PPG in the last two games since DeAndre Hopkins returned from suspension, compared to 19.0 PPG over the first six weeks. The Seahawks on the other hand have multiple takeaways in six straight games and have won by double digits the last two weeks. -- Josh Weinfuss Bold prediction: Tariq Woolen will pick off Kyler Murray for the second time this season. Seattle's rookie fifth-round corner saw his streak of consecutive games with an interception end at four last week as Giants QB Daniel Jones hardly threw his way. He's bound to have a much busier Sunday against Arizona. DeAndre Hopkins , who didn't play in their first meeting last month, is tied for the NFL lead in targets (27) since returning. Hopkins has run roughly 91% of his routes from the offense's left side during his time in Arizona and thus should see plenty of Woolen, who stays on that side of the field. -- Brady Henderson Stat to know: Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III leads all rookies with five rushing touchdowns this season. It is the second-most by a Seahawks rookie in franchise history, trailing only Curt Warner with 13 in 1983. Injuries: Seahawks | Cardinals What to know for fantasy: Zach Ertz doesn't carry an elite ceiling, but his consistent volume has landed him among the top 12 scoring tight ends in seven of eight weeks. See Week 9 rankings . Betting nugget: Seattle has covered three straight games and four of its last five. Arizona is 0-5 outright and ATS in its last five games against division opponents including playoffs (0-2 this season). Read more . Moody's pick: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 28 Walder's pick: Seahawks 19, Cardinals 16 FPI prediction: ARI, 64.4% (by an average of 4.2 points) Rams (3-4) at Buccaneers (3-5) 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread : TB -3 (42.5) What to watch for: Both teams find themselves in precarious situations with just three wins a piece through eight weeks. The key here will be the red zone. The Bucs have struggled big-time this year in scoring and are among the league's worst in red-zone efficiency, while the Rams' defense has allowed teams to score just 43.8% of the time in the red zone -- the third-best mark in the NFL. -- Jenna Laine Bold prediction: Tom Brady will lose his fourth-straight game to the Rams, something he has only done against the same team once in his career (Bills). Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford will become the fifth quarterback to beat Brady in three straight games. -- Sarah Barshop Stat to know: Both teams rank at the bottom in the NFL in rushing offense this season. The Rams are 31st with 68.4 rushing YPG, and the Bucs are last with 61.9 rushing YPG. Injuries: Rams | Buccaneers What to know for fantasy: Chris Godwin has yet to turn any of his 55 targets into a touchdown this season. Are the scores coming? In his first two seasons with Brady, Godwin scored once every 17.6 targets. See Week 9 rankings . Betting nugget: Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in its last six games. Los Angeles is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Read more . Moody's pick: Buccaneers 23, Rams 17 Walder's pick: Rams 26, Buccaneers 22 FPI prediction: TB, 66.8% (by an average of 5.0 points) play 2:36 Can Brady and the Bucs turn things around? Jeff Saturday and Robert Griffin III are optimistic that the Buccaneers will improve in the second half of the season. Titans (5-2) at Chiefs (5-2) 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread : KC -12.5 (46) What to watch for: Derrick Henry has one of his best career per-carry averages against the Chiefs (5.44 yards). But the Chiefs have defended him well in recent games. He needed 29 carries to get 86 yards in last year's meeting. It's difficult to picture the Titans being able to keep up with the Chiefs if Henry doesn't have a big day this time, so it will be interesting to see whether Kansas City loads the box given Tennessee's lack of outside threats. -- Adam Teicher Bold prediction: The Titans' defense will generate three turnovers against the Chiefs. Kansas City is averaging 1.1 turnovers per game while the Titans defense has taken the ball away 1.6 times each contest. Patrick Mahomes had two fumbles and an interception the last time he faced Tennessee. -- Turron Davenport Stat to know: Travis Kelce has 31 career games with 100 receiving yards and is tied with Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez for the second most by a tight end in NFL history and one shy of tying Rob Gronkowski's record (32). Injuries: Titans | Chiefs What to know for fantasy: You're not benching him, especially after last week. But it is worth noting that the Titans are significant underdogs and that Henry hasn't finished better than RB30 in either of their losses this season. See Week 9 rankings . Betting nugget: Tennessee is 5-0 outright and ATS in its last five games. The last four Tennessee games have gone under the total. Kansas City is 0-3 ATS at home this season. Read more . Moody's pick: Chiefs 30, Titans 20 Walder's pick: Chiefs 33, Titans 13 FPI prediction: KC, 88.2% (by an average of 14.3 points) Ravens (5-3) at Saints (3-5) Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread : BAL -2.5 (48) What to watch for: Saints QB Andy Dalton is hovering on the verge of a record he'd rather forget, as a loss to the Ravens would give him a 6-20 primetime record -- the worst of any quarterback since 2000. The positive? Dalton's last primetime win was a four-touchdown game against Baltimore on Sept. 13, 2018. Dalton will have to overcome losing Michael Thomas to a season-ending toe injury. The Saints will probably rely on Alvin Kamara who has four straight games with 100-plus scrimmage yards. -- Katherine Terrell Bold prediction: The Ravens will have two 100-yard rushers. With Baltimore's top two pass targets (Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman ) banged up, the Ravens will rely on their ground game. Lamar Jackson has run for the third-most yards in prime-time games (1,123) since 2018, and Kenyan Drake should get plenty of carries with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both injured. This wouldn't be the first time this has happened to the Saints, who allowed 100 yards to the Eagles' Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts in the same game in 2020. -- Jamison Hensley Stat to know: Jackson will play against the Saints for the first time this Sunday. Lamar is 25-2 in his first starts against teams in his career. That is the best record since 1950 among QBs to start against at least 20 different teams, according to Elias Sports Bureau. Injuries: Ravens | Saints What to know for fantasy: Chris Olave has finished every game this season as either a top-20 receiver or outside the top-40 at the position ... how lucky do you feel? See Week 9 rankings . Betting nugget: Baltimore is 5-12 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, including 0-3 ATS in its last three games. Read more . Moody's pick: Ravens 31, Saints 17 Walder's pick: Ravens 27, Saints 19 FPI prediction: BAL, 53% (by an average of 1.0 points)