Betting tips: Warriors-Mavericks Game 1

by Gordon Dixon - Our betting experts break down the Western Conference finals matchup between the Mavericks and Warriors.

Betting tips: Warriors-Mavericks Game 1

6:59 AM ET ESPN Fantasy and Betting Analysts All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook. What you need to know for Game 1 Interesting interior: The Warriors are the most perimeter-oriented team in the league, and the Mavs will likely attempt to limit the 3-point damage during this series. Considering that 68.3% of Andrew Wiggins ' field goal attempts this postseason have come inside the arc, there's a good chance that if Wiggins takes 13-16 shots tonight, he will coast over his projected scoring total. Cooking from deep: Stephen Curry 's success from beyond the arc could drive this series. His 3-point prop from beyond sits at 3.5 across most books, a clip he has surpassed in two of the past three games. For Dallas, Reggie Bullock has lived from beyond the arc this postseason, as 86.5% of his shots from the floor have come from deep. He has lofted 15 3-pointers over his past two games, so his 3-point prop of 2.5 seems reachable. -- Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe Breaking down Game 1 9:00 p.m ET, Chase Center, San Francisco Line : Warriors (-5) Money line: Warriors (-225), Mavericks (+185) Total: 214.5 points BPI Projected Total: 222.2 points BPI Win%: Warriors (57.7%) Ruled Out: Gary Payton II (elbow) Note: BPI numbers factor in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play. Notable: The Warriors covered their first three games this postseason but are just 2-6 ATS in the eight games since. Playoff Basketball Battle Compete for $40,000 throughout the NBA postseason! Make Your Picks Best bet: Warriors to win series in 7 games (+275) Based on what we've seen so far, I expect this to be a close, tough series. I give the Warriors the edge because their offense is more dynamic, and not reliant on on-ball creation. Even if the Mavs slow down Stephen Curry , the Warriors should still be able to generate strong offense at least four times over the next seven games. Luka Doncic is a monster and Jason Kidd will do a great job making the game a one-on-one battle as long as possible. But in the end the Warriors should have enough to take this one. -- André Snellings Best bet: Luka Doncic over 33.5 points. Doncic has averaged 31.5 PPG and 23.4 FGA during the postseason. He scored 126 points in four games against Golden State in the regular season, the fourth most in a single season since Steve Kerr became the Warriors' coach in 2014. -- Moody Best bet: Stephen Curry over 3.5 3-pointers . Curry has struggled from beyond the arc this postseason, shooting only 35.9%. Despite that, he has averaged 10.6 3-pointers per game. Curry should return to form in the Western Conference finals. He has averaged 4.9 3-pointers made and 11.6 attempted while shooting 42.5% from beyond the arc in 27 career conference finals games. -- Moody Best bet: Stephen Curry under 27.5 points . Curry has also struggled against the Mavs this season. In four matchups, he only averaged 20.0 PPG on 38.8 FG% and 29.4 3P%. Dallas specializes in making life difficult for opposing guards and is excellent at defending the 3-point line. The Warriors may still have success, but the Mavs will likely to try to limit Curry as a scorer. -- Snellings Best bet: Klay Thompson Thompson delivered a stellar performance in Game 6 against the Grizzlies. He has a good chance of replicating that performance tonight. He has averaged 19.6 PPG in Western Conference finals games and will surpass that mark in Game 1. -- Moody Best bet: Over 214.5 points. These teams played four times in the regular season, with two high-scoring games (average 231.5 combined points) and two low-scoring games (average 194.5 combined points). The Warriors have been elite offensively at home in the postseason, averaging 116.2 points in six games, including three games with 123 points or more. The Mavericks caught fire in the latter portion of their series against a tough Suns defense, scoring between 111 and 123 points in three of their past four games.-- Snellings Editor's Picks The five biggest questions that could decide the Western Conference finals 5h Kevin Arnovitz 1 Related Tonight's total of 214.5 points is the lowest the Warriors have encountered through 12 games this postseason. Granted, those aforementioned 11 contests didn't come against the slow-paced Mavericks, but Dallas' defense at home is much different than on the road. The Mavericks rank second in defensive rating when playing at home this postseason (102.4), but just 12th when playing on the road (117.4). This game will produce more points than anticipated. -- Joe Fortenbaugh